PENGARUH ANGGARAN PAJAK DAN REALISASI PENERIMAAN PAJAK TERHADAP PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH (PAD) PADA BADAN PENDAPATAN DAERAH KOTA SERANG TAHUN 2021–2025

Abstract

Regional Original Revenue (PAD) serves as a key indicator of regional fiscal independence and constitutes the primary source of financing for local government administration and development. At the Regional Revenue Agency (Bapenda) of Serang City, tax revenue realization during 2021–2025 consistently fell short of the established tax budget target, creating a gap that potentially affects PAD achievement. This study aims to examine the partial and simultaneous effects of Tax Budget (X1) and Tax Revenue Realization (X2) on PAD (Y). A quantitative descriptive approach was employed using five years of annual secondary data collected through documentation of Bapenda Serang City's financial reports, processed through classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression, t-test, F-test, and the coefficient of determination (R²) using SPSS 26. The analysis produced the regression equation Y = 48.550 + 0.308X1 + 1.062X2. Partially, neither Tax Budget (sig. 0.437) nor Tax Revenue Realization (sig. 0.073) showed a significant effect on PAD, a result attributable to severe multicollinearity between the two predictors (VIF = 391.063). Simultaneously, however, both variables significantly affected PAD (F-count 3,903.681; sig. 0.000), explaining 99.9% of PAD variance (Adjusted R Square = 0.999), a figure that warrants cautious interpretation given the limited sample size. These findings suggest that budget planning and revenue realization efforts should be managed by Bapenda Serang City as an integrated process rather than two separate activities.